Unpredictable poker players

Unpredictable poker players
Unpredictable poker players in live poker games

Poker used to be thought of as a game mainly of flair and emotional intelligence. A good bluff, or the ability to peer into your opponent’s mind were considered the primary characteristics for a Texas Hold’em pro.

This was the era of the “live” player. One who thrived off the occasion. The face-to-face. Reading their opponents’ tells. The pressure. The emotion.
Now though, if you fast forward a few decades, the poker world has changed beyond recognition. Players analyze betting patterns, they discuss bet sizing and scrutinize fold equity and expected value. Investment bankers and engineering graduates from the world’s best universities now flock to poker. Instead of trading volatility in the world of finance, they are exploiting “thin value for maximum pay-off” in high stakes games, often online.
Poker has transformed into a game of rigorous calculation. It has automated, you could say. It has taken a leap towards the world of math and away from old-fashioned emotional intelligence. A lot of the world’s best and most successful players play percentages and probability.
However, that doesn’t mean that all those players who thrive on the cut and thrust of face-to-face, live play have had to cash in their chips and leave the table. They have had to learn to play differently.  And some have found a technique that works – using the unconventional and unpredictable, to confound the percentage and probability based systems used by so many players nowadays.
Unconventional live players tend to play the player, not the numbers, and work outside the rules of betting charts. It’s like they are playing in a separate world from the more mathematical players. They are able to weave in and out of convention. It is often a difficult style to play against because it’s so unpredictable.
Most young pros would say that this “out of the box” approach isn’t the best way to play in the long run (partially because it falls so far outside their own models). That’s a good argument. But one thing is for sure. The unconventional players are great to watch!

Here’s a great example of where unconventional play can overcome an opponent. Take Henry Tran in the WSOP 2016 Main Event — one of our all-time favourite hands at Paul Phua Poker.

Tran is dealt three of clubs and two of hearts and his opponent, Ben Alcober, is dealt King of diamonds and eight of diamonds.
Before the flop, Tran opens middle position to two times the big blind. Alcober reacts to this by three betting out of small blind to 25k. The pot has now grown to 43.5k, but the action does not stop here. Tran then makes an astonishing four bet which Alcober calls. The pot is now at 94.5k and the flop has not even been dealt.
The flop is nine of clubs, four of diamonds and seven of spades (a “rainbow” flop). Alcober leads out of position bluffing for 32k. Tran responds by re-bluffing and making it 65k. Alcober calls.
The turn peels off and it is the nine of spades. This gives the players a paired board and also puts two spades up there. Once the players see the turn they check to each other.
The river is the two of diamonds which completes no flushes and makes it unlikely that either player has a full house. But it does give Tran a pair of twos, together with top of the pair of nines on the board. Not enough you would think to win a big pot.
Alcober seizes the moment and bets 165k (which is over two thirds the size of the pot) even though the fans watching on TV know that all he has are the nines on the table.
Tran thinks for a moment and instead of folding, he then calls with his pair of twos and nines. Totally unexpected. Surely he couldn’t.
Alcober shows his King eight of diamonds, with a slightly meek expression on his face. Tran shows two, which makes his two pairs. Footage of the moment shows Tran hopping around the table, and other players open mouthed at what has happened. The commentators can hardly believe what they have seen either. Bluff, counterbluff, big raises followed by checks followed by raises. Unpredictable play. Great to watch.
Tran’s call wins him a huge pot at a critical juncture of the tournament. But the new generation of poker player would feel pretty uncomfortable making the sort of call Tran makes here, because the price is simply not right to be calling on the river. You are simply wrong too often for it to be a profitable call in the long run.
Looking a little closer it’s important to recognize that these guys have deep stacks in a multimillion dollar first-prize tournament. The amount of three-betting bloats the pot in a lot of ways which means that these guys are destined to play a huge pot from the start.
There are also a lot of mind games going on. These guys know each other’s style and they are trying to exploit that. Fortune favours the brave and in this case the bravest won the pot. Tran saw something in his opponent that did not add up and he acted on his read.
Tran’s big pot approach seems risky. But it demonstrates the enormous value of taking people out of their comfort zones and using it to the player’s advantage. Did Tran’s play affect Alcober’s decision-making and bet-sizing?

Another great example of where unconventional meets conventional in poker is Qui Nguyen at the World Series of Poker Main Event 2016.

Qui stunned the poker world with his play. Phil Hellmuth compared it to his own “white magic” style of play. Qui (like Hellmuth) is able to see beyond the realms of probability and pricing, and through to the core of the opponent, what they are thinking and how they are behaving. Poker wizardry.
This style has won Hellmuth 14 World Series of Bracelets. Hellmuth and Qui prove how effective emotional intelligence combined with deep understanding of the game can be highly lucrative.
The likes of Qui Nguyen, Henry Tran and also Scotty Nguyen are examples of traditional players who have adapted to modern-day poker, to take down titles or win cash whilst using less conventional methods and placing emphasis on playing the player, not just the cards.
On the one hand, yes, poker is at heart a game of math and science. Math, for obvious reasons, and science too because science simply asks the question: “Why?” Something we should all be doing at all times in poker. Keep evaluating, as Paul is always saying. And yes the top online players have a mathematical orientation, it is true. You have to understand probability and hand computations to a certain level.
But it is a mistake to forget the other half of the brain. Poker is holistic and the likes of Tran, Hellmuth and Nguyen show that. It is the blend of the old style pros (who love the ebbs and flows of the live game and who play out of the box poker), and more math orientated online pros that make Texas Holdem poker in 2017 such an exciting game to watch and play.